No more new diesel transit buses for the Fairfax Connector

Fairfax County currently maintains a fleet of 313 diesel and diesel electric hybrid transit buses and services about 90 routes across the County. Our analysis includes discussion of the County staff responses to the County’s Joint Environmental Task Force (JET) recommendations as well as the budget for transit buses included in the FY 2022 capital budget and the FY 2022-2026 capital improvement program.

The Fairfax County Department of Transportation (FCDOT) staff asserts that since buses have a 15- or 16-year life cycle, buses procured in 2022 cannot be replaced before 2037.  We reject this assertion, and believe that in fact this shows why placing a moratorium on new diesel bus purchases is so important:  to avoid having to retire newly purchased diesel buses before their service life ends in order to meet crucial environmental goals.  The Board of Supervisors (BOS) should clearly establish a policy that any new bus purchases must support the goal of fully electrifying the Fairfax Connector fleet – hopefully by 2030, as recommended in the October 2020 Final Report of the JET, but at least by 2035, as envisioned by the May 4 Board Item.  If any existing County policies or regulations would hinder achieving these goals, the BOS needs to change them. 

Fairfax County Must Consider the Complete Life-Cycle Costs of Buses, as well as the Social Cost of Carbon Pollution

Traditionally, the principal criterion that the County has used for acquisition of vehicles, including transit buses, is the initial cost of acquisition.  However, as several BOS members have stated, the proper criterion should be the life-cycle cost, including the costs of fueling, maintaining, and repairing buses, as well as a quantification of the environmental and health benefits of electric buses vs. diesel and/or diesel/hybrid buses, all of which favor electric buses over diesel.  Currently, operational/maintenance costs and the social cost of carbon are NOT considered in the decisions about acquisition of new buses.  If they were, the life-cycle cost of electric buses would be seen to be dramatically cheaper than that of diesel buses. 

Because of these advantages, according to research done by FACS, Frederick County, Maryland, anticipates that the higher initial cost of their electric buses will be paid off in only seven years due to lower fuel and maintenance costs. In fact, one study showed that over its lifetime, an electric bus can save $400,000 in fuel expenses and $125,000 in averted maintenance costs (U.S PIRG, 2019), making its total cost much lower than that of a diesel bus. In similar fashion, Hampton Roads estimates the annual fuel cost of a diesel bus to be $19,000 and the average electricity costs for an electric bus to be $3,200.

FCDOT is proposing a 4 bus, three-year pilot program that has just been approved for financing from the VW settlement funds available to the Commonwealth of Virginia.  We agree with Supervisor Foust that this pilot program is not a sufficient response to the climate crisis that we are facing.  FCDOT characterizes electric transit buses as “an emerging technology” that requires further study. It asserts that there are “several unknowns” that must be studied, but other than cold weather performance, FCDOT has not identified any such “unknowns.” 

It is also important to factor in the public health benefits of going electric . The American Lung Association found that the transition to zero-emission vehicles in Virginia could, by 2050, save more than $1.3 billion in annual health costs, including from premature deaths, asthma attacks and lost workdays.  This will especially benefit low-income communities and communities of color that are disproportionately impacted by transportation emissions due to their proximity to diesel bus routes (see https://www.lung.org/clean-air/electric-vehicle-report).

Examples of Electrified Bus Fleets

In fact, electric buses are in many municipal fleets, and more are coming on the market all the time. 

• There are over 400,000 electric transit buses operating in China today.
• Bogota, Colombia has procured 470 (of an eventual total of 1,500) electric buses for its transit system. 
• Santiago, Chile has more than 300 electric transit buses that are operational. 
• Closer to home, Washington, D.C. has been operating electric transit buses on its circulator routes since 2018. 
• Alexandria now has 3 electric buses with 8 more expected before the end of 2021.
• Montgomery County, Md. has 4 electric buses and expects to add 10 additional electric buses in 2022.
• Frederick County, Md. has 4 electric buses that have been operating for a year. 

Although we recognize that there is a learning curve that FCDOT must face, we believe that there is sufficient experience in the U.S. and elsewhere to address most, if not all, of the FCDOT concerns about electric transit.

FACS urges the County to place a moratorium on the purchase of any new diesel transit buses. The FY 2022 budget has $20 million for bus replacement.  The FY 2022-2026 capital improvement program articulates plans to replace 173 buses for a cost of $99.3 million ($570,000 per bus).  Montgomery County, Md. acquired Proterra electric buses in 2020 for $794,000 per bus.  FACS recognizes that procurement of electric buses may need to be phased in over time, but we believe that the capital budget line item for “bus mid-life rebuilds” can be increased to ensure that the Fairfax Connector can meet the demand for service until such time as electric buses can be procured. If this is not feasible, then the County should plan to lease buses until electric buses can be purchased.